Watching TLT: Preparing for What Comes Next
Sometimes the best trades start where no one is looking
Most people are still focused on what worked last year. It’s human nature. When something performs well, we assume it will keep doing so. But markets have a habit of moving on quietly while everyone is still watching the last trade.
That’s why I’ve been paying attention to TLT and the bond market.
When rates surged, bonds suffered. Few wanted to touch them. Money moved into equities, energy, and risk assets. But recently, something has started to shift. Interest rates are coming down, bond yields are showing signs of turning, and some of the macro indicators that usually move before recessions are starting to flash again. It doesn’t mean a downturn is guaranteed, but it tells me to stay alert.
Technically, TLT looks interesting. The weekly charts suggest it might have found a base. It’s been a long decline, one that pushed sentiment to extremes. Markets don’t stay one-sided forever. The best trades often come from areas people have stopped talking about.
I am still bullish on equities, but only in the short term. Momentum is good and the trend is still friendly, but cycles always change. I will enjoy the ride for now and take what the market gives me. When my indicators turn, when yields move in a way that confirms the shift, I will act fast.
That’s something experience teaches you. You don’t fight the market, and you don’t cling to a view when the story starts to change. You adapt. You stay curious. You move before the crowd.
If equities stay strong through 2026, I’ll keep participating. There’s no reason to stand aside while conditions remain supportive. But I have to be prepared for what comes next. The signs are subtle now, yet they’re starting to line up.
Maybe TLT becomes the next opportunity. Maybe it just tells us where we are in the cycle. Either way, I want to be ready when the message becomes clear.
That’s what this game is about. Watching, waiting, learning, and moving when it matters most.